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The National Association of Broadcasters Convention
April 7th - April 11th, 2002 - Las Vegas
One nice thing about falling short of attendance expectations for a convention as historically large as NAB is the increased clarity in the dialogue overheard from incidental eavesdropping. Consequently, I discovered that it didn't take long for some to register their disappointment at the "So, How's the Conference Going?" booth. But they did get wonderful weather all week long, and if wearing a full convention badge, a free tote bag!
As the week continued, though, it became apparent that the nominal 8% drop in attendance did not cripple the focus of NAB 2002. Especially with so many convention participants preoccupied with the DTV transition schedule. There was a heightened sense of awareness to anything uttered from FCC Chairman Michael Powell. Presumably to get feedback on the substantial number of commercial stations that have applied for transition deadline extensions. Many of these broadcasters have recently received an FCC inquiry asking for more evidence to support their extension request. While solutions to help meet the May 1st deadline adequately populated the floors of the planet's newest hemisphere, (the Las Vegas Convention Center), there still the matter of paying for it. Wouldn't it be nice if the same extension the down-turned economy is currently enjoying could be awarded to those affected by it? Adding to a sour stomach spawned by the pressure to conform, the ratio of transition costs to the financial outlay required to send each of its current DTV viewers a holiday greeting card is still a little out of balance.
Ultimately, Michael Powell greased up the FCC's defibulator paddles by delivering a request to the key players responsible for virtually any of the technology and hardware that brings "TV" programming and services to your favorite viewing environment. The gist of the Chairman's message is for each of the industry's participants to make a good faith effort in paving the way for HDTV to travel into your living room. While suggested as a voluntary plan, there certainly was a "wink-wink, nudge-nudge" feel permeating a request that could help the government sell off the residual analog spectrum.
Other significant show topics included the continued refinement in asset management, the somewhat maniacal interest in video over IP, and intriguing centralcasting solutions. Some stakeholders in the success of asset management feel they are poised to suffer the same frustration that iTV pioneers have found with incompatibility issues. The Dublin Core Metadata Initiative, a growing collective initiated in an aptly named Ohio town, is helping to steer those interested in using asset management tools away from the blarney that waits to ambush their goal of efficiency and increased productivity. It wasn't hard to find sessions discussing asset management and product offerings based on principles of the Dublin Core on the convention hall floors.
On the iTV front, one of the relatively few conference sessions paying attention to anything under the interactive umbrella included one panelist forecast on the future of iTV. To validate her claims she brought a device made popular by the Tyco Corporation. I saw her shake the Magic 8-Ball but I don't remember her announcing the results. The audience seemed to appreciate the whimsical flavoring applied to her widely shared opinion of the interactive television world. Expectations, silver linings, and culpability for the continued disappointment that North America has found in the industry were offered throughout the morning. Comparisons to European, Asian and South American iTV success have become more frequent, but some speakers questioned the definitions of that success with claims that government subsidy often keeps those deployments from failing. It was said that North America won't lead in iTV deployment, but it will lead in iTV thinking. Another optimistic panelist reminded the audience that we can all learn from the research and development that comes from international deployments.
More reports included the encouraging pace the American Film Institute is establishing in the area of content creation. The presentation came with an enthusiastic naming of some of the project funders. The list contained a variety of notable sources including platform and middleware companies that have been accused by some of having differing agendas. The presenter dawned an ambassadorial smile as she amusingly announced that while some of the participants may be suing each other they come to AFI workshops with a spirit of iTV collaboration.
Of course, the promise of DTV holds the attention of those interested in iTV deployment as many recognize the belief that analog delivery is far less conducive to an interactive component than its pending successor. A Chief Technologist at one of the major networks, while agreeing with that notion, took a more realistic approach with his presentation reminding the audience that DTV is difficult and expensive, quality is elastic, and additional revenue is elusive. His big picture concern was, with all of the unknown and the projected expense, is the current DTV objective worth the mere 22 million estimated terrestrial viewers that will remain after DBS and Cable take their share of the US TV home market? He also asked the audience not to forget that; "until very recently there has been a noticeable reluctance from the cable operators to voluntarily carry broadcasters digital signals at the same time they're carrying analog signals". How difficult will time sales become for commercial broadcasters when considering the uncertainty of dual-carriage and multicast carriage? He went on to recognize other issues to overcome in the rollout of DTV including tower problems, encoder variances, and real HD receiver availability. His future predictions were offered in a brighter light with "all-in-good-time" solutions to most of the concerns discussed. Perhaps some of the audience felt his oratory was a rain dance for the scheduled DTV parade, but more realistically it might be considered a throttle for anyone falling prey to a starry eyed perspective that DTV is interactive television's ship coming in.
The leading set top box manufacturers were pleased to display, and/or discuss their solutions for almost rabid HD, PVR and DOCSIS demands. Delivery of these products is pending the success of ongoing negotiations with MSOs, but some target dates are as early as first quarter of calendar year 2003. Intriguing retail boxes are also part of MSO and CEA negotiations. One leading manufacturer offering a clustered media box hopes to give consumers the opportunity to avoid cable box rental fees by purchasing their own cable provider authorized retail STB. While the box will likely hit store shelves with a considerable price, there is a reasonable expectation that the clustered components, including a CD/DVD player, audio and video receiver, cable receiver, and 5 x 100 watt per channel output of the unit will justify the purchase.
Speaking of PVRs, the bandwagon now needs a new suspension. It was hard to attend any session that did not recognize the growing demand for the benefits delivered by personal video recorders, said, by the CEA, to expect triple digit growth this year. Any dissenting concerns like those afraid of the adverse affects of the estimated 98% of users that practice "commercial skipping", and some retail fears that the device is too complicated for large-scale success, were politely acknowledge and then steamrolled. Not many speakers were prepared to argue that VOD and PVRs continue to carry the torch in the search for interactive success.
There was limited representation for present-day iTV product on the convention floors. What was available was dominated by MHP and OCAP flavored applications and deployed mostly overseas. One of the world's leading middleware/content producers was displaying an EPG product that has had European success, but also deployed in the US last October in conjunction with a Sacramento, CA cable overbuilder. The jury is still out on the potential of the California deployment as the cable provider is in the midst of significant financial issues. Future iTV applications were represented by some interesting IP friendly MPEG-4 exhibits, and a collection of ATSC/DASE applications displayed in a petite consolidation called the DTV Store.
A full morning of varying iTV panels passed with many speakers offering industry evaluations that basically claim that iTV still hasn't made it to the deep end of the pool. Yet, one of the founders of a leading middleware provider came to the rescue stating that he would never start another company if he believed everything that he had heard that day. He feels that the iTV future is brighter than the previous sessions had depicted. From another industry's viewpoint, the Consumer Electronic Association's Gary Shapiro shared his skepticism about the future of iTV as he "has seen a lot of money poured down the drain" and invited the audience to be careful in looking toward European iTV success as a forecast for North America. He feels that iTV in Europe satisfies consumer needs that are taken care of by the World Wide Web on this side of the Atlantic. Two varying iTV opinions from well respected sources certainly doesn't help rid the bewildered expression that can be seen on many session attendees as they travel from conference room to conference room.
